Analysis and Modeling of Child Pick-up Probability in Primary and Secondary Schools
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摘要: 现代社会中城市交通拥堵问题已经成为人们日常生活中的热点话题,在众多城市拥堵问题中由中小学上下学伴随的接送交通对学校周边交通造成的拥堵问题尤为突出。为了解决这一问题,笔者从中小学校上下学接送行为特性入手,分析影响接送行为的各方面因素以及各影响因素的影响程度和影响效果;结合南京市实验小学为接送行为调查的结果,对调查的数据进行统计分析,建立模型,并运用SAS软件进行模型拟合和参数标定;最终得到对象学校的接送行为概率模型。研究表明,学生年龄和学校距离是影响接送概率2个最为显著的因素,且学校距离每增加1 km ,家长不接送概率与接送概率比值的对数值降低0.0241;学生年龄每增加1岁,家长不接送概率与接送概率比值的对数值增加1.125。
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关键词:
- 交通行为 /
- logsitic模型 /
- SAS软件建模 /
- 接送概率 /
- 影响因素分析
Abstract: Urban traffic congestion has become a hot topic of people's daily life in the modern society .The traffic congestion caused by the child pick‐up traffic in primary and secondary schools is particularly prominent .The pick‐up be‐haviors in primary and secondary schools are analyzed ,including various factors affecting the behavior and the extent of the impact of each influencing factor .The survey results of the Nanjing Experimental Primary School were analyzed and SAS software was used for modeling ,model fitting and parameters calibration .Finally ,a probability model of pick‐up be‐havior was proposed .The results show that the student's age and the distances between school and student's home are the two main factors affecting child pick‐up probability The logarithm of the ratio of non‐pick‐up probability to pick‐up proba‐bility reduced 0 .024 1 as the distance increased 1 km and it increased by 1 .125 as student's age increased 1 year . -
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