基于二元有序概率的共享单车满意度评估方法

徐家红; 周继彪; 马昌喜; 宛岩; 沈莹

doi:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.03.017

基于二元有序概率的共享单车满意度评估方法

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.03.017

徐家红^1,,
周继彪^{1, 2, ,},
马昌喜³,
宛岩¹,
沈莹¹

1.
宁波工程学院建筑与交通工程学院浙江宁波 315211
2.
同济大学交通运输工程学院上海 201804
3.
兰州交通大学交通运输学院兰州 730070

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 52002282

宁波工程学院崇本基金项目 2019014

宁波市哲学社会科学规划课题项目 G20-ZX37

详细信息

作者简介:
徐家红（1999—），本科.研究方向：交通仿真.E-mail:18989319539@163.com

通讯作者:
周继彪（1986—），博士，副教授.研究方向：交通仿真.E-mail: zhoujb2014@nbut.edu.cn

中图分类号: U491.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-02-24

An Evaluation Method for Bicycle Sharing Satisfaction Based on a Bivariate Ordered Probit Model

XU Jiahong^1
,,
ZHOU Jibiao^{1, 2
, ,},
MA Changxi³,
WAN Yan¹,
SHEN Ying¹

1.
School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China
2.
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
3.
School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China

摘要

摘要: 城市共享单车是城市绿色交通系统的组成部分，是服务公众短距离出行和公共交通接驳换乘的重要方式，在解决城市交通出行“最后一公里”问题等方面发挥了积极作用。为科学评估城市共享单车服务的满意度，采用问卷调查法和实地踏勘法采集了宁波市1 212个共享单车用户有效样本，利用统计学方法构建二元有序概率（bivariate ordered probit, BOP）模型，分析共享单车满意度影响因素，计算显著影响因素的边际效应，量化分析共享单车满意度和使用率的影响因素效用。结果表明：BOP模型可以量化分析影响共享单车使用频率和满意度的各类因素。结果表明，性别、年龄、教育程度、家庭拥有车辆情况、平时出行方式和出行距离等具有统计显著性，是影响城市共享单车服务满意度的显著因素。从用户需求和服务感知出发，了解现有服务所存在的主要问题以及迫切需要优化的方面，提升共享单车服务质量和用户出行体验。
- 交通工程 /
- 满意度 /
- 使用率 /
- 二元有序概率 /
- 共享单车
Abstract: As an integral part of the urban green transportation system, bicycle sharing is an important way to serve the public for short-distance travel and public transport interchange, playing an active role in solving the"last mile"of urban transportation.A valid sample of 1 212 bicycle-sharing users in Ningbo is collected using questionnaires and field surveys to assess the satisfaction of bicycle-sharing services.Also, a bivariate-ordered-probit(BOP)model is constructed using statistical methods to analyze the factors influencing bicycle sharing satisfaction and calculate the marginal effects of significant influencing factors.The BOP model is used to quantify the utility of the factors influencing bicycle sharing satisfaction and usage.The results show that it can quantify the factors influencing the frequency and satisfaction of bicycle sharing.Gender, age, education, household ownership, usual travel mode, and trip distance are statistically significant factors influencing satisfaction with bicycle sharing services in the city.From user needs and service perceptions, the main problems of the existing service and the aspects that need to be optimized are understood to improve the quality of bike-sharing service and users'travel experience.
- traffic engineering /
- satisfaction /
- usage /
- bivariate ordered probit /
- bicycle sharing

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图 1 调查点位分布图

Figure 1. Distribution of survey sites

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 模型流程图

Figure 2. Flow of the model

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 共享单车使用频率和满意度分布图

Figure 3. Frequency and satisfaction distribution of the bike-sharing system

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 信度分析Cronbach'sα系数

Table 1. Cronbach'sαcoefficients for reliability analysis

指标	项数	Cronbach's a
使用率	50	0.984
满意度	50	0.984

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 KMO和Bartlett的检验

Table 2. Flow of the model

取样足够度的	Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin度量	0.986
	近似卡方	91896.431
Bartlett的球形度检验	df	1 225
	Sig.	0.000

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 BOP模型估计结果

Table 3. Estimated results of the BOP model

变量	使用率			满意度
变量	β	S.E.	ρ -value	β	S.E.	ρ -value
性别(男/女）	0.386	0.072	0.05	0.094	0.070	0.176
年龄(青少年/老年）	-0.152	0.099	0.125	0.204	0.114	0.074
教育程度(高/低）	0.117	0.072	0.104	0.100	0.070	0.156
月收人(高/低）	0.097	0.054	0.075	0.016	0.056	0.779
职业	-0.057	0.029	0.052	-0.071	0.035	0.042
家庭拥有车辆情况（1辆小汽车）	-0.013	0.100	0.897	-0.042	0.100	0.677
家庭拥有车辆情况(2辆小汽车）	0.090	0.134	0.501	-0.192	0.144	0.183
家庭拥有车辆情况（> 3辆小汽车)	-0.131	0.251	0.600	-0.201	0.232	0.387
家庭拥有车辆情况（电瓶车）	0.171	0.090	0.059	-0.046	0.091	0.610
家庭拥有车辆情况（自行车）	0.026	0.092	0.775	-0.165	0.085	0.052
家庭拥有车辆情况(无）	0.001	0.151	0.996	-0.078	0.136	0.568
平时出行方式(共享单车）	-0.795	0.079	0.052	-0.095	0.077	0.213
平时出行方式(电瓶车）	-0.055	0.107	0.610	0.149	0.113	0.187
平时出行方式(公共自行车）	-0.055	0.115	0.634	-0.024	0.111	0.827
平时出行方式(公交或地铁）	-0.003	0.078	0.966	0.111	0.080	0.169
平时出行距离	0.049	0.039	0.204	-0.050	0.038	0.185
主要用途(上下班/上下学）	-0.290	0.077	0.000	0.061	0.075	0.413
主要用途(购物旅游）	0.049	0.083	0.367	-0.164	0.087	0.061
使用理由(租还车方便）	-0.038	0.080	0.635	-0.293	0.082	0.000
使用理由(经济实惠）	-0.150	0.079	0.059	-0.324	0.073	0.000
使用理由(环保）	-0.037	0.081	0.648	-0.300	0.077	0.000
存在问题(乱停乱放）	0.234	0.094	0.012	0.329	0.096	0.001
存在问题(故障车太多）	-0.113	0.086	0.191	0.239	0.088	0.007
交通事故	-0.210	0.146	0.151	-0.405	0.177	0.022
改进之处(违停现象）	0.021	0.083	0.803	-0.068	0.072	0.343
改进之处(单车破损）	-0.001	0.096	0.995	0.053	0.094	0.572
改进之处(单车广告）	-0.014	0.097	0.885	0.039	0.085	0.642
改进之处(定位系统）	-0.146	0.085	0.084	-0.017	0.079	0.826
改进之处(乘客服务）	0.049	0.094	0.603	0.184	0.092	0.047
电子围栏	-0.034	0.073	0.064	0.060	0.067	0.372

下载: 导出CSV

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