基于动态风险饱和度的高速公路交通安全分析

田万利; 吴忠广; 李娟; 胡少宏; 孙晓军

doi:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.05.002

基于动态风险饱和度的高速公路交通安全分析

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.05.002

1.
交通运输部科学研究院标准与计量研究中心北京 100029
2.
安徽省交控建设管理有限公司合肥 230088
3.
浙江省交通工程管理中心杭州 310005

基金项目:

中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目 20200405

详细信息

作者简介:
田万利（1992—），硕士，研究实习员.研究方向：交通运输标准化.E-mail: tianwanli92@126.com

通讯作者:
吴忠广（1984—），博士，高级工程师.研究方向：交通运输标准化.E-mail: kinliwu@163.com

中图分类号: U492
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-12

An Analysis of Highway-traffic Safety Based on Dynamic Risk Saturation

1.
Research Center for Standards and Metrology, China Academy of Transportation Science, Beijing 100029, China
2.
Anhui Transportation Holding Construction Management Group CO., LTD., Hefei 230088, China
3.
Zhejiang Provincial Traffic Construction Engineering Supervision and Administration Bureau, Hangzhou 310005, China

摘要

摘要:
为了反映高速公路运营安全状况，提出了动态风险饱和度理论，构建了动态风险饱和度模型和计算方法。依据路段不同交通饱和度下车辆的驾驶行为，以路段交通安全为约束，研究了跟车行驶和换道行驶2种驾驶状态下，考虑车速变化及雾天等特殊天气条件影响的路段平均最小安全车头时距计算方法，利用建立的安全车头时距与安全流量之间的转换关系，得到不同驾驶状态下的路段安全流量。在不同车辆驾驶状态切换阈值下，计算路段实际交通流量与路段安全流量的比值得到高速公路路段动态风险饱和度值。以G3高速公路某改扩建路段所在路网为例进行验证，计算得到了路网中各路段不同切换阈值下的动态风险饱和度值。动态风险饱和度随着交通饱和度的增大，呈现稳定的先增大后减小的规律，且在换道行驶状态时达到最大，在跟车行驶状态时开始下降，与现有交通安全状态分析相吻合。相较于交通饱和度，动态风险饱和度更能够反应出高速公路路段交通安全动态变化的规律。
- 交通安全 /
- 高速公路 /
- 动态风险饱和度 /
- 安全流量 /
- 跟车行驶 /
- 换道行驶
Abstract:
The study proposes a dynamic risk saturation theory and constructs a dynamic risk saturation model and a calculation method to reflect the safety operation status of highways. On the basis of the driving behavior of vehicles under different traffic saturation of the road section and the constraint of keeping the road section traffic safety, the calculation method of the average minimum safe headway of the road section takes into account the influence of vehicle speed changes and special weather conditions, such as vehicle speed and foggy in the two driving states of car-following and lane-changing. The established conversion relationship between safe headway and safe flow, is used to obtain the safe flow of road sections under different driving conditions. Under the switching thresholds of different driving states, the ratio of the actual traffic flow to the safe flow of the road section is calculated to obtain the dynamic risk saturation values for road sections. Taking a road network of a reconstructed and expanded section of the G3 expressway as a case study, the study calculates the dynamic risk saturation values of each section in the road network under different switching thresholds. It can be concluded that with the traffic saturation increases, the dynamic risk saturation shows a steady pattern of first increasing and then decreasing. It reaches the maximum in lane-changing driving state and starts to decrease in the following driving state, which is consistent with the existing analysis of traffic safety states. Compared with the factor of traffic saturation, dynamic risk saturation can better indicate the pattern of dynamic changes in traffic safety of highway sections.
- traffic safety /
- highways /
- dynamic risk saturation /
- safe flow /
- following driving state /
- lane-change driving state

HTML全文

图 1 交通饱和度与事故数的关系

Figure 1. Relationship between the traffic saturation and the number of accidents

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图 2 车辆驾驶状态与事故数的关系

Figure 2. Relationship between the vehicle-driving state and the number of accidents

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图 3 动态评价指标与静态评价指标的转化逻辑

Figure 3. Transformation logic between dynamic and static evaluation indices

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图 4 区段内交通流运动状态示意图

Figure 4. v

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图 5 计算流程图

Figure 5. Flow of model calculation chart

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图 6 改扩建路段地理位置

Figure 6. Geographical location of reconstruction and expansion Sections

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图 7 动态风险饱和度值及交通饱和度

Figure 7. Dynamic-risk saturation values and traffic saturation

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表 1 高速公路路网各路段动态风险饱和度

Table 1. Dynamic-risk saturation of each section in the expressway network

编号	起止段	车道数	设计速度/（km/h）	高峰小时交通量/（pcu/h）	基本通行能力/（pcu/h）	交通饱和度
1	G~A	4	120	1 422	2 200	0.65
2	B~E	4	120	1 054	2 200	0.48
3	E~F	4	120	996	2 200	0.45
4	C~D	8	120	1 800	2 200	0.82
5	B~H	4	100	478	2 100	0.23
6	H~I	4	100	478	2 100	0.23
7	I~J	4	100	476	2 100	0.23
8	J~K	4	100	473	2 100	0.23
9	K~L	4	100	542	2 100	0.26

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表 2 不同流量下高速公路的车速值

Table 2. Speed value of expressway under different traffic

流量（pcu/h)	采用的车速值/（km/h）
流量（pcu/h)	V_85%车速	V_15%车速
800	110	100
1 750	95	85
2 100	80	70

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表 3 α, β 取值

Table 3. Values of α and β

序号	α	β
a	0.4	0.75
b	0.4	0.9
c	0.55	0.75
d	0.55	0.9

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表 4 无特殊情况高速公路改扩建路网各路段风险饱和度

Table 4. Risk saturation of each section of the highway network for reconstruction and expansion without special circumstances

编号	起止段	交通饱和度	动态风险饱和度
编号	起止段	交通饱和度	a	b	c	d
1	C~D	0.82	0.66	0.66	0.48	0.48
2	G~A	0.65	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.89
3	B~E	0.48	1.19	1.37	1.19	1.37
4	E~F	0.45	1.01	1.01	1.01	1.01
5	K~L	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26	0.26
6	B~H	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23
7	H~I	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23
8	I~J	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23
9	J~K	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23

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