Fire Risk Analysis of Lithium-ion Batteries in Air Transportation Based on Fault Tree Method and Tri-fuzzy Theory

This study analyzes the fire accidents caused by Lithium-ion battery in air transportation from March 21 , 1991 to July 23 ,2013 and draws the fault tree .The fault tree analysis software is used for qualitative analysis .Then combined with tri-fuzzy numerals and expert scoring method ,the quantitative analysis is conducted to analyze the fault tree .This method solves the problem that the fault tree analysis method cannot determine the accurate probability of event occurrence in that it obtains the probability of basic events and the top event .The corresponding measures are put forward to reduce such fire accidents .