Assessment of Regional Traffic Road Condition Based on Time Series Prediction

Assessment of regional traffic road condition is the basis of traffic management and travel route guidance . In order to evaluate the regional traffic road condition effectively ,this paper proposes a fuzzy comprehensive quantitative method and its algorithm .This method is the combination of time series prediction and principal component analysis . First ,a time series prediction model is applied to predicting the average speed and traffic volume .These predicted speeds and volumes are used as model parameters to describe the traffic congestion condition .Then ,the principal component a-nalysis is used to determine the contribution weight of each roadway section to the congestion of the network .Finally ,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation quantitative method is used to evaluate the congestion state of regional road network .To verify the proposed method ,the method was used to analyze the roadway network of Linfen City in Shanxi Province by u -sing Vissim and SPSS .Simulation results show that the algorithm can effectively predict the traffic conditions in urban ar -eas and provide an accurate basis for traffic management and travel route guidance .