Vessel Traffic Accident Forecasting Using a Combination Gray Neural Network Model

The prediction of maritime accidents is an important part of maritime safety as it helps estimate future maritime accidents for management decision making .First ,a gray model was used to simulate accidents in water trans-portation .Then ,the original data were compared with the results to calculate the residuals .Finally ,the BP neural net-work model for the residual correction was applied in oeder to get the final prediction results .It was predicted that the number of water transportation accidents in 2012 and 2013 was 270 and 281 ,respectively .