| Citation: | GAO Yu, WU Xiaochun. A Risk Assessment Method of LTE-R System Based on Improved Evidence Theory[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2021, 39(5): 19-26. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.05.003
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A method based on AHP and improved evidence theory is proposed to evaluate LTE-R system, thus solving the problem of differences and conflicts of subjective evaluation of experts in operational security risk assessment of LTE-R system. Fuzzy mathematics is used to transform fuzzy evaluation of experts into quantitative membership degree. Adopting the improved evidence theory, the process of overcoming conflicts between evidences can be improved based on Pearson coefficient. Through the weighted distribution of evidence credibility weights, the subjectivity of information is improved. Conflict factors are constructed to modify the evidence fusion process, and the basic probability assignment(BPA)function matrix is finally obtained. The maximum membership degree is selected as a judgment principle to evaluate the risk level of the corresponding system, then compared with other methods. It can be summarized that the evaluation of the case analysis of the LTE-R system is "negligible risk" with a confidence level of 83.41%, which is 3.12% higher than the discount evidence theory, and 16.95% higher than the grey-fuzzy security assessment method. Under the premise of consistent evaluation results, the method can improve the problems of expert evaluation conflicts that cannot be handled correctly and integration, and provide a high-confidence risk level value, which provides a reference for the operation evaluation of the LTE-R system.
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